Trump’s summit success lifts trust in American alliances
In the weeks before Donald Trump’s summit with Anthony Albanese and subsequent visits to Kuala Lumpur, Tokyo and Seoul, there were signs of deepening pessimism about the US across the region.
The mercurial US President had slapped 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea; demanded they make hundreds of billions in investments into the US that he would control; and threatened 100% tariffs on China.
His Pentagon officials were demanding numeral targets for defence spending and reviewing key agreements such as AUKUS.
And the Japanese were watching nervously as Trump contemplated a grand bargain with Chinese leader Xi Jinping that might lift hi-tech export controls and soften US support for Taiwan in exchange for more Chinese purchases of American soybeans and Treasury bonds.
In polls taken by the US Studies Centre and the Lowy Institute before the Albanese summit, trust in the US in Australia was the lowest on record, with respondents in the US Studies Centre poll saying America was doing more harm than good in Asia. The Lowy and USSC polling showed that Japanese and Australians still supported their countries’ alliances with the US – in fact, those numbers did not decline at all from the year before – but how long could social licence for the alliance last with trust so low?
In the end Trump delivered some cringe-worthy moments, but on the merits the summits could not have gone better for US allies. Trump lavished praise on the Prime Minister for being a strong leader, reaffirming AUKUS and signing a pact on critical minerals co-operation.
In Japan Trump and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi watched Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani play in the World Series on television, signed another minerals agreement, then Trump told Takaichi he was ready to help her in any way he could. In South Korea he resolved simmering trade disputes and promised to provide nuclear-powered submarines to the Korean navy.
None of these leaders came under pressure from Trump to hit rumoured defence spending targets and the outlines of the deal Trump announced with China included no changes in export controls or Taiwan policy.
What happened? First, it is important to remember that despite his outsized personality and authoritarian impulses, Trump still sometimes has to reflect the will of the American people – and polls show that significant majorities of Americans support alliances and do not like Trump’s tariffs.
Second, Xi gave Albanese and Takaichi a helping hand by announcing potentially crippling export control rules on rare earth metals the week before the Trump-Albanese meeting. Australia could then step up with the minerals and Japan with the financing to build alternative supply chains.
Xi almost had Trump convinced that only China matters in Asia but then inadvertently reminded him why the US needs allies such as Japan and Australia. The fact China backed off from its threatened embargo does not change the importance of that wake-up call.
Third, Albanese, Takaichi, and South Korea’s Lee Jae-myung knew their alliances with the US are indispensable and did what they had to do to lock them in with Trump. Albanese benefited from Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles’s deft diplomacy in Washington on AUKUS and ambassador Kevin Rudd’s hard work on the minerals agreement.
Takaichi benefited from Trump’s nostalgia for her mentor Shinzo Abe but also added the right combination of pomp, flattery and substance. South Korea almost went too far with the gift of a traditional golden crown and military bands playing YMCA as Trump emerged from Air Force One, but it worked. Back in the US the late-night comedians tore into Trump for the gilded gifts and his silly dancing, but audiences roared when they heard Takaichi was the first female Prime Minister of Japan and a heavy-metal drummer. Americans like having allies.
This is not the way alliances are meant to be run. For Trump, unpredictability is a tool to keep others off balance, but alliances depend on trust, predictability and reassurance. Nevertheless, the summits this past month demonstrated continuity at a time of uncertainty and strengthened everyone’s hand in the face of a far more aggressive China.
This is not a guarantee that everything will be smooth sailing for the next three years. Trump may not be done with tariff threats, as Canada discovered. US Studies Centre polls show Australians are particularly worried about American democracy with images of troops and masked immigration officers deploying in major cities such as Portland and Chicago. It is not likely that Trump will take the shock out of his shock and awe approach to politics.
But Australia and other US allies in Asia are better positioned to take collective action that will reinforce stability and prosperity in the region – something that would be close to impossible without the US.
So rather than relaxing and breathing a sigh of relief, Albanese and Takaichi should keep up the momentum from their successful summits with each other and Trump.
The most successful Trump whisperer in Trump 1.0 was Japan’s Abe, not because he survived one summit but because he kept working to get the American President on board with his strategy for the region.
The next target should be scheduling a Quadrilateral Security Dialogue meeting with India. After Trump’s falling out with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, this year’s Australia-US-Japan-India Quad summit fell off the calendar.
Australia and Japan should push to get it rescheduled for next March when the President is meant to visit China. In USSC polling close to half of the public in all four countries said they would support turning the Quad into a military pact.
That may be premature but there is recognition in all four countries that alignment of the region’s maritime democracy is a force for good. There is also work to be done in Southeast Asia and the Pacific as well.
The most successful Trump whisperer in Trump 1.0 was Japan’s Abe, not because he survived one summit but because he kept working to get the American President on board with his strategy for the region.